Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 19.638793 21.367150 23.278122 25.567907 28.264730 31.376146 35.292401
2024-10-20 16.824049 19.032418 21.649238 25.046743 29.450791 35.139252 43.369045
2024-10-27 15.593027 18.213912 21.506709 26.100546 32.630013 42.122554 58.294961
2024-11-03 14.230759 16.985588 20.589184 25.884811 33.963127 46.919584 72.632350
2024-11-10 13.273383 16.130278 19.997280 25.945452 35.630889 52.751926 93.022110
2024-11-17 12.541064 15.475935 19.567788 26.124184 37.472287 59.589783 122.782816
2024-11-24 11.919913 14.901014 19.163764 26.243714 39.203795 67.005583 166.187958
2024-12-01 11.297833 14.262887 18.585814 25.971312 40.122244 73.116696 220.809972
2024-12-08 10.826188 13.799453 18.218198 25.985226 41.591921 81.501842 323.840016
2024-12-15 10.357071 13.302158 17.746364 25.740723 42.457068 88.873063 486.585012
2024-12-22 9.935527 12.845903 17.297254 25.471958 43.204040 96.557684 812.450933
2024-12-29 9.567632 12.446671 16.905688 25.256386 44.026566 105.365169 1758.906132
2025-01-05 9.234903 12.087310 16.560644 25.105591 45.034546 116.370499 11603.543711
2025-01-12 8.854311 11.633946 16.027920 24.528780 44.841769 122.300977 NaN
2025-01-19 8.769431 11.636339 16.261715 25.512789 49.112848 157.549621 NaN
2025-01-26 8.496379 11.325016 15.931893 25.291227 49.940344 175.197390 NaN
2025-02-02 8.285995 11.102980 15.741982 25.343515 51.632030 204.314146 NaN
2025-02-09 8.107685 10.923258 15.613480 25.512671 53.779165 246.574821 NaN
2025-02-16 7.933582 10.741509 15.468225 25.626375 55.815699 300.529918 NaN
2025-02-23 7.720412 10.485939 15.172741 25.364167 56.469602 343.126154 NaN
2025-03-02 7.556504 10.304948 15.003364 25.377328 58.180359 424.302172 NaN
2025-03-09 7.371153 10.080673 14.740821 25.142271 58.885779 499.786635 NaN
2025-03-16 7.193557 9.862827 14.478973 24.883881 59.446598 591.320543 NaN